Would you have waved Gordon home?
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Posted by Paul Dylan on October 30, 2014 | Short Link
Down by one with two out in the bottom of the ninth, game 7 of the World Series, Alex Gordon hit a triple and MAY have been able to turn it into an inside-the-park home run, but was held at third.  The next batter popped up to end the game and the series.

Down by one with two out in the bottom of the ninth, game 7 of the World Series, Alex Gordon hit a triple and MAY have been able to turn it into an inside-the-park home run, but was held at third. The next batter popped up to end the game and the series.

In Strat-O-Matic’s super-advanced fielding chart, there is a “rare play” that can happen on a fly ball to the outfield. The play result reads:

    Batter hits a ball into the gap and the right(left) and center fielder collide while trying to make the play. The ball rolls all the way to the wall, and the batter trots home with an inside-the-park Homerun!

I pulled out my copy of the Strat rulebook and super-advanced charts today because I was thinking about the two-out triple Alex Gordon hit last night and I wondered if the same situation could be created on the tabletop. I had it in my mind that there is a scenario in Strat-O-Matic where you would face the same decision that Royals third base coach Mike Jirschele faced – that is, where the ball was on its way in from the outfield and you had to make some mental calculation between the chance that the runner beats the throw home and/or that the defense doesn’t make a perfect throw.

It turns out that the only result on any Strat chart that resembles Gordon’s triple is the rare play mentioned above. That rare play turns a triple into an inside-the-park homerun, but doesn’t force any decisions on the base coach.

This post on businessinsider.com does a great job of breaking down everything that happened with two outs in the ninth inning last night (from the Royals’ point of view), and explaining why Jirschele made the decision to hold Gordon at third. Personally, I would have sent Gordon. Even if the chance of him scoring is 30% or so (that’s 1-6 in Strat-O-Matic terms – which I feel is a reasonable estimate), I send him.

crawford quoteBy my stopwatch, it took Gordon 12.1 seconds to get from home plate to third base. That’s with him not running at top speed out of the box and then slowing up at the bag at third. For argument’s sake though, let’s say it would have taken him 4.0 seconds to get from third to home. Could Brandon Crawford have thrown a strike from 200 feet out that would reach home plate in 3.9 seconds minus the two or three-tenths of a second it takes Posey to apply the tag? We’ll never know.

UPDATE:

MLB.com Statcast says that Gordon was going 18.7 mph as he rounded second base. At 17 mph, it would take exactly 4.00 seconds to reach home plate from third. I’ll go ahead here and pat myself on the back for that estimate I made earlier.

Nate Silver agrees with me.

But Joe Posnanski does not.

Here is my question for you guys, though: Is there any game engine where this situation could come up? Is there any game where I might have to make the decision to run or hold Gordon with two out in the bottom of the ninth of game seven of the World Series down by one run with a pitcher on the mound who is in the final moments of an historic postseason performance?

Emerald City SC 2014-15
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Posted by Paul Dylan on October 26, 2014 | Short Link

ECSC crest

MANAGER: PAUL DYLAN
VENUE: STARFIRE SPORTS ARENA (cap. 4500)

The SOCCER BLAST PREMIER LEAGUE is a first-year draft league using the Soccer Blast game engine from Plaay.com. The league doesn’t have a website yet, but that should be forthcoming. In the meantime, you can follow us at “The Home Of British Sports Gaming” on Delphi.

Here are a few important rules to note:

  • This is a keeper league, meaning that rosters hold over from year-to-year. In order to keep a player, he must appear in at least half the number of the matches he’s eligible for. Players are eligible for half the number of matches they appeared in the 2013-14 EPL season (rounded up).
  • There are 10 teams in the league. The draft pool was made of players from the top 14 teams in the 2013-14 EPL season.
  • Every player must appear in at least one match in the season.
  • Teams must maintain three goalkeepers on the squad at all times.

Here is my roster of 25:
 

Sturridge Daniel Liverpool
Hazard Eden Chelsea
Silva David Man City
Mignolet Simon Liverpool
Pieters Erik Stoke City
Adebayor Emmanuel Tottenham
Wilshere Jack Arsenal
Kompany Vincent Man City
Luiz David Chelsea
Van Persie Robin Man Utd
Vermaelen Thomas Arsenal
Sung-Yeng Ki Sunderland
Whelan Glenn Stoke City
Rosicky Tomas Arsenal
Toure Kolo Liverpool
Bendtner Nicklas Arsenal
Pantilimon Costel Man City
Britton Leon Swansea City
Clichy Gael Man City
Moses Victor Liverpool
Tremmel Gerhard Swansea City
Lescott Joleon Man City
Jelavic Nikica Everton
Jones Kenwyne Stoke City
Pienaar Steven Everton

SOCCER_BLAST_PREMIER_LEAGUE_rules_v2
SBPL Draft List By Club 14-15

After Further Review with Steve Tower: 10/21/14
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Posted by Paul Dylan on October 22, 2014 | Short Link

Thank you, Steve, for the terrific endorsement of the OneForFive.com Print Edition. The overwhelmingly positive response to the magazine has been beyond even my most optimistic dreams. I hope I can continue to give the hobby something special to look forward to every three months or so. It’s a lot of work, but reviews like yours – as well as all the wonderful emails I’ve received – are a reward whose value can’t be overstated. I’m feeling truly blessed.

2014 World Series Simulation Results From Various Game Engines
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Posted by Paul Dylan on October 21, 2014 | Short Link

XKCD

With the Giants vs. Royals series starting today, baseball prognosticators are everywhere. Most simulation games have “pre-played” the series, to varying results. Below are links to the results of a few different simulations, across different game engines.

Have you pre-played this World Series with your favorite game? Leave your results in the comments!
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STRAT-O-MATIC BASEBALL

GAME 6
San Francisco 3 7 0
Kansas City 7 9 0

HR: G. Blanco, B. Posey

Kansas City scores five runs in the bottom of the fifth inning, highlighted by a two-run single off the bat of Eric Hosmer. Yordano Ventura allows just two earned runs in six innings for his second win of the series. Buster Posey strikes out against Greg Holland for the final out, as Kansas City celebrates its first World Series title since 1985 in front of its home fans.

KANSAS CITY WINS IN SIX GAMES
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OUT OF THE PARK 15

We thought we’d try something different with our World Series sim. This time we simmed the series five times and put together a composite that gives us a pretty good look at what will likely happen. The big takeaway? This is, unsurprisingly, a very evenly matched series: four of the sims went seven games and the fifth ended in six.

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HISTORY MAKER BASEBALL
At press time, this pre-play is only through the first three games of the series, but the Royals have a 3-0 lead.

The Royals keep their mojo going, winning Game 3 2-1 in 11 innings. They have not lost in the post season.

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WHATIFSPORTS.COM

10-22-14 whatifsports
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DYNASTY LEAGUE BASEBALL
USA Today is simulating the series with Dynasty League Baseball, but the newspaper has released the results of game one only so far.

BOX SCORE: Royals 9, Giants 6

The American League champions won their ninth consecutive postseason game as Shields allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings before running out of gas in the eighth. Kansas City built a 9-1 lead thanks to a string of hits with runners in scoring position over the first seven innings. Left fielder Alex Gordon drove in four runs and catcher Salvador Perez plated three to help the Royals jump out to a 9-1 lead, only to have the Giants come back in the late innings.

Have you pre-played this World Series with your favorite game? Leave your results in the comments!

Polman Introduces Nixon to OneForFive
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Posted by Paul Dylan on October 17, 2014 | Short Link

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