as always, click on the scorecard to see a full size version
2010 MLS GAME 19: SEATTLE SOUNDERS v. FC DALLAS
Seattle’s Fredy Montero nailed two penalty kick goals, and his 92nd minute shot turned out to be the difference in the match.
Between the first and second printing of APBA Soccer, the game company changed the rule regarding Penalty Kicks. In the original rule book, whenever an offensive player suffered a penalty while holding the ball in Area A (the zone right in front of the goal), a roll was required. A roll of 11-26 led to a Penalty Kick, anything else became a Direct Free Kick from Area B. In the second print of the rule book, that rule was eliminated. Now, any foul suffered in Area A is an automatic Penalty Kick.
I bought the game in August, 2011 and my edition arrived with the 2nd edition of the rule book. I’ve been playing with the revised rule since day 1 and I like it. There aren’t too many fouls in Area A, mostly because there aren’t too many possessions in Area A.
Since I’ve finished this season now, here are the stats for Penalty Kicks in my 2010 MLS Replay (28 total games):
PKA: 12 (0.49 per game)
PKG: 11 (92% success)
Saves: 1 (Nick Rimando RSL, game 17)
In real life 2010 MLS (240 games):
PKA: 56 (0.23 per game)
PKG: 48 (86% success)
As you can see, in my replay Penalty Kicks came up at a rate slightly over twice the actual rate. This replay only included the 8 best teams in the league, so I’m going to assume that this fact may have skewed the data slightly toward more penalty kicks since better teams are more likely to have the ball in Area A more often.
In 28 games, this replay saw about 5 too many penalty kicks this season. To meet a realistic percentage in an MLS replay with these teams, I would have needed to subtract 42% of penalty kicks, or about 15 chances of 36.
With this data, it is apparent that the 11-26 roll in the first rule book was certainly too conservative and would have suppressed penalty kicks too much, but more realistic results should have followed if I would have used an 11-43 roll to see if a PK was awarded for any foul in Area A.
However, what did I lose by seeing an extra 5 PKs (and 4 or 5 extra goals) on the season? Nothing, I think. I’m going to keep playing without the extra roll.